Silvano Gallus, “Mario Negri” Institute for Pharmacological Research
Inadequate data are available on within-country comparison in Europe on economic aspects of smoking, including the extent of tobacco tax evasion. A face-to-face survey on smoking was conducted in 2010 within the Pricing Policies and Control of Tobacco in Europe (PPACTE) project in 18 European countries (Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, England, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden). In each country, around 1000 subjects representative of the population aged ≥15 years were enrolled, obtaining a total sample of 18,056 participants.
Overall, 27.2% of survey participants described themselves as current smokers (30.6% of men and 24.1% of women). The overall proportion of smokers evading taxes was 7.5%. The highest prevalence of tax evasion was observed in Latvia (38.8%), followed by Bulgaria (24.1%) and Sweden (19.4%), and the lowest one in France (2.6%), Greece (2.1%) and Portugal (0.0%). An higher frequency of tax evaders was found among less educated smokers (odds ratio, OR=1.96) and in countries with a land or sea border with Ukraine, Russia, Moldova or Belarus (OR=3.22).
Around 80% of non smokers and 50% of current smokers were favourable to an increase in cigarettes price by 5%. The corresponding estimates for an increase by 20% were 70% and 40%, respectively. Assuming a 20% increase in price, 14% of current smokers would quit and 31% would reduce consumption and 22% would switch to cheaper tobacco products.
Substantial differences in terms of tax evasion were found across European countries, with an higher prevalence of evaders in eastern European countries. The study confirms that the supply of illicit tobacco is the key factor contributing to tax evasion. Data on attitudes and behaviours show that an increase in cigarette price/taxation would likely be feasible and effective to reduce smoking prevalence and consumption